2023 Annual Outlook - A Tale of Two Halves

Investment industry analysts and experts are debating whether a recession will occur in 2023. If you polled a long list, the response would be split. It’s hard to remember a time when expectations were this divided. This uncertain outlook raises a couple of questions. Does Matco see a recession taking place in 2023? And does it matter to investors if a recession happens or not?  

Our Outlook in Brief:

  • Matco expects that a recession is more likely to occur in 2024. The first half of the year will likely see central banks continuing to increase interest rates, the labour market producing healthy job growth, and corporate profits surprising analysts by remaining positive, all while inflation trends lower.

  • Understanding geopolitics is more important than ever for professional investors. The ripple effects of far-away conflicts will no longer be meaningless to the West. Economic growth will be de-synchronized in the future, meaning growth will be more regional-based than global. In the 1980s, economic growth was uneven worldwide, and certain countries were growing while others were in a recession.

  • Investors awoke to the fact that the world needs more traditional energy supplies, not less. Energy security and independence concerns are now top of mind for most Western governments. Despite the rally in energy shares over the last two years, the sector still has several positive catalysts.

  • Fixed Income, or more simply put, the bond market, has often been a haven for investors. The asset class is intended to provide investors with stability and income. For some, it serves as a source of retirement income. For others, it has smoothed its equity returns over the long term due to its typical characteristic of being less volatile.

  • Equity investors know that volatility isn’t new, that financial markets move up and down, and that this movement is expected. Over 2022, bond investors were also reminded that fixed-income securities are highly sensitive to interest rates. We believe that a well-defined investment process to select securities and deploy capital allows investors to navigate market uncertainty. By incorporating factors contributing to a margin of safety, we believe we are in a solid position to remain convicted in our investments and successfully navigate 2023 and beyond.

Learn more about our views on the global economy and how we are positioning ourselves for the next year.

2023 Annual Outlook - Download PDF



Founded in 2006 to manage and service seven family offices, today Matco offers the benefits of our extensive investment management experience to individual investors, foundations, endowments, condominium corporations, trusts, corporations and not-for-profit organizations.

Our mission is to simplify the investment world for our clients by understanding their needs and providing exceptional investment solutions that preserve and grow capital.

 Matco Financial is an independent, privately held discretionary investment counsellor and asset management firm that serves the needs of individual investors, institutions, advisors, trusts, corporations and not-for-profit organizations. Matco provides investment advisory services to investors on a discretionary basis through mutual funds and separately managed accounts. This communication is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Matco Financial Inc. makes no representations as to the accuracy or any other aspect of information contained in other websites. All statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance. Investors should not rely on forward-looking statements. Actual results, actions or events, could differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

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