Outlook
The first quarter of 2022 observed a few developments that will impact the outlook for interest rates. First and foremost, inflation has continued to be stubbornly high. In 2021, global supply chain disruptions, vehicle price increases and rising oil prices were the primary sources of inflation.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put additional upward price pressure on the price of oil, as well as other agricultural commodities. This has further intensified inflation concerns in the first three months of the year. As a result, North American central banks are accelerating overnight interest rate increases. In March, both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25%.
Although it took place after March 31, also worth noting that the Bank of Canada increased their overnight rate by an additional 0.50% in April, with the Federal Reserve expected to do the same on May 4th. It is anticipated that both central banks will continue to increase interest rates throughout the remainder of 2022. Current expectations are for both overnight interest rates to end the year between 2.00% and 2.50%. These rate increases are used as a blunt tool to begin curbing inflation. Matco’s expectation at the start of the year was for inflation to begin moving lower in the third quarter of 2022. The Russian-Ukraine conflict has extended this expectation to the first quarter of 2023.
While the performance of bonds is negatively impacted by rising interest rates, preferred shares can be positively impacted. The Fund’s 14.2% allocation to preferred shares may allow the Fund the achieve capital appreciation in a rising interest rate environment.
The outlook for economic growth is also important for the Matco Fixed Income Fund. If growth remains healthy, corporate bonds will continue to perform well. The growth outlook for 2022 is for continued growth, albeit at a slower pace than 2021. Due to the slower economic growth profile, we have reduced our corporate bond weight from 45.5% at the beginning of 2021, to 35.2% currently.
The fund also has a strong income profile of 2.8%. As the outlook for fixed income performance remains modest, maintaining a healthy level of income will remain a key focus throughout 2022.