Outlook
As we enter the fourth quarter, we expect increased volatility leading up to the U.S. presidential election on November 3, 2020. In an election year, the month of October typically produces negative returns, but the following year typically produces significant positive returns. This is shown in the years 2005, 2009, 2013 and 2017 where after U.S. presidential elections, the S&P 500 Index increased by 3.0%, 23.5%, 29.6% and 19.4% respectively. In 2021, not only do we expect an earnings recovery, but we expect governments and central banks around the world to continue to provide economic stimulus. Global growth should gain traction and then momentum so long as monetary policy includes ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and QE (quantitative easing). With that said, we would expect the U.S. and Japan to underperform the rest of the world as investors sell the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen to gain exposure to countries and/or regions with cyclical exposure. As mentioned earlier, the Fund has begun rotating out of the U.S. and into the rest of the world. Although we believe Europe is the cyclical catch up trade, we expect emerging markets and resources to appreciate as the U.S. dollar continues to depreciate.